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Acme Packet Was Priced for Unattainable Perfection
Acme Packet (APKT) was a great example of a company that was Overvalued coming into earnings, so that anything less than absolutely outstanding results will pull the stock lower. Today, the communications equipment maker reported earnings and revenues that topped analysts’ expectations but rather than getting a boost shares are trading lower by 12% on Friday afternoon. Furthermore, the company raised sales guidance for the rest of the year to $214 million to $218 million, but that was considered weaker than the market hoped to see. As for profits, for the full-year Acme expects to earn between 72 and 74 cents per share, exceeding consensus estimates of 68 cents.
Excluding items, Acme Packet earned 18 cents per share in the second quarter, a penny ahead of expectations. Sales were up 62% to $53.3 million beating projections of $52.4 million. To see the company perform better than expected and raise guidance for the rest of the year is encouraging, but it is clear to us that the stock had already priced in plenty of growth already.
Google Gets Serious About Location-Based Services
At Google (GOOG) I/O in May, the search giant indicated that they were about to take their commitment to location to the next level. Sure, Latitude had been around for a while, but everyone knew that Google could do more in the space. The announcement of some new location APIs seemed to a big part of the solution. And now comes the fun part.
Thursday on their Geo blog, Google announced that they’re beginning to open the Places API for business. The first developers getting access? Those working on check-in services.
Acme Packet Punishes Investors
This one's gonna sting. For the 2nd day in a row I did not check the schedule of earning reports due to a very busy schedule and, unlike Akamai Technologies (AKAM), I actually have some decent sized exposure to Acme Packet (APKT). The tiny silver lining is it's a good reminder of the reasons why I have been cutting back almost every position going into earnings. (Click to enlarge)
Going into the day I have a 9% unrealized gain in the stock which shall vanish and then some, I am sure. From there it will be exactly the same situation as Netflix (NFLX) and Akamai (this is starting to be a pattern)... if (when) it breaks the 50-day moving average ($28.50s) I have to cut it back sharply. And if it does not regain that level soon, we'll most likely cut bait and revisit it later in the year. But the prognosis for today is PAIN. Time for damage control. (Note to readers - never try to launch a mutual fund during earnings season.)
Rovi Puts Up an Impressive Beat
Rovi (ROVI) actually rallied in after hours after a quite large beat on EPS Thursday evening, but that does not make it correct to have held such a position going into earnings. If I had reviewed the earnings reports list yesterday this one would have been cut back just as any other stock and then we could get back in at much lower risk after the fact. Every so often you are going to have a stock run away from you by going this route, but at least you don't get Vistaprinted.
With that said, I will say I am happy I did not get hit with two bullets today but just one. I can tell this stock is completely off the radar of the momo crowd because no one (AP, Reuters) wrote a story about it, and a whopping two people had a comment on Yahoo message boards post earnings. I am good with that.
Expedia Q2 2010 Earnings Call Transcript
Microsoft's Stump Speech: We're Leading the Cloud Parade
Microsoft’s operating chief Kevin Turner on Thursday set out to position the software giant as a cloud computing leader with a broad portfolio that rivals such as Google (GOOG), Salesforce.com (CRM), Amazon (AMZN) and VMware (VMW) can’t match.
Turner, speaking at Microsoft’s financial analyst meeting, spent a lot of time talking about the company’s Azure strategy. He dinged rivals and touted a broad portfolio of cloud services ranging from the Azure appliance to SharePoint, Office, CRM and other products in the cloud.
Google Introduces Location-Aware Mobile Display Ads

Google’s mobile ads are becoming more location-aware. Today, Google (GOOG) is introducing mobile display ads for both the iPhone and Android phones which can be geo-targeted. Advertisers will be able to check a “location extension for display” box and their ads will become geo-enabled when viewed in mobile browsers or apps. A little double-arrow will open up the ad and show the business pinned on map with two big blue buttons to get directions or call the business. Google will only charge for calls or clicks.
Akamai Technologies: Can It Keep Up With Expectations?
Yesterday was a very busy day so I did not catch up on which companies were reporting until late into the night. I tend to cull all positions going into earnings, but Akamai Technologies (AKAM) was only a 1.3% exposure so at that weighting I'm not sure I would have done much to the position.
Much like Netflix (NFLX), I found the Akamai report quite good, but with high valuation and a stock full of renters rather than owners. Expectations got too high and the stock was punished. In this case AKAM fell about 9% early in after hours trading last night but rallied later in the evening to fall 5%.
It's Game Time for Google
Disclosure: No positions.
Why I Recommended Shorting VistaPrint Before the Close Wednesday
I am working on a consulting basis with comScore, attempting to selectively build out comScore's penetration among hedge funds. I will include below a recommendation that I shared with a comScore client who had asked specifically about VistaPrint (VPRT).
This is a perfect example of how I always recommend that investors use comScore data NOT on a stand-alone basis, but IN THE CONTEXT of your pre-existing knowledge of the company/stock. In this case, I had my own opinions about the stock that I shared as well...
Searching for Value in China? Consider UTA
At the end of my previous article (3 Chinese Growth Stocks in Value Territory), I asked readers if they would like me to cover a specific company mentioned in further detail. Suffice to say, there was a large audience that were curious about one company in particular: Universal Travel Group (UTA).
Universal Travel Group appears to be a bargain on the surface, however, its long-term future is dependent on things out of its control (or at least recently out of its control). Here's a quick look at what the company does and where its priced:
Omnicom: Earnings Scorecard
Following the second quarter results on July 20, the analysts have been optimistic on Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) based on the gradual recovery in macroeconomic conditions. However, management did not issue any guidance.
Earnings Review
Earnings Preview: Akamai Technologies
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is expected to report Q2 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 28, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET.
The consensus estimate is 34c for EPS and $243.27M for revenue, according to First Call. Wedbush believes Q2 revenue and EPS could exceed expectations. The firms Q2 revenue estimate is $245M, which is slightly above consensus.
Yahoo Could See 5% Upside From Social Networking
Yahoo (YHOO), which competes primarily with Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), AOL (AOL) and New York Times (NYT) in the display advertising market, recently announced its results for the second quarter of 2010. Headline news: Display advertising revenues increased 19% year-over-year and 5% sequentially.
Lately, Yahoo has been increasing its focus on social networking functionality, an area where it lags behind market leader Facebook. We believe that Yahoo’s recent acquisition of Citizen Sports, integration with Facebook, and partnership with the popular social gaming site Zynga will boost traffic and user engagement levels. In turn, this should further benefit Yahoo’s display ad business. Our analysis follows below.
One Leg of Apple’s Impressive Share Price Appreciation Has Left the Building
It’s impossible to argue against Apple’s (AAPL – $264.08) category dominance and future top-line growth prospects. Clearly, the company will continue to capture the imagination of consumers and deliver solid revenue growth.
That said, part of the story of the past 5-6 years has been a massive profitability improvement from the 12% EBIT margin range to the 28% to 29% EBIT margin range that the company enjoys today. GPM% on a trailing 12-month basis turned negative in Q3 2009 as did total company EBIT margin (see charts below).